Friday Briefing: Portugal Burns Again

Good morning and welcome to PORTUGAL DECODED. Portugal observes today a national mourning day for the fires that ravaged the country since last Sunday. Sadly, this won't be the last time it happens.

Sep 20, 2024

POLITICS

A “source from Belém Palace” (meaning the President himself) told the press that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has already decided to dissolve the Parliament and call new elections if the State Budget for 2025 is rejected (More).
The Minister of Defence, Nuno Melo, reignited a centuries-old territorial dispute by claiming that the Spanish town of Olivenza rightfully belongs to Portugal and asserting that the country will not relinquish its claim (More).

SOCIETY

The second trial related to the death of Ihor Homeniuk began on Monday. The Ukrainian jobseeker was killed by border guards at the Lisbon airport in 2020, prompting the break up of SEF and the creation of AIMA (More).
A 12-year-old boy, wearing a bullet-proof vest, stabbed and injured six children at a school in Azambuja, Lisbon district, on Tuesday. All children are now out of danger and the suspect has been suspended indefinitely (More).

ECONOMICS

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appointed former Portuguese Finance Minister Maria Luís Albuquerque to the coveted position of next Financial Services Commissioner (More).
The Parliament put forward proposals to limit MB Way fees after the Portuguese Association for Consumer Protection warned that the transfer service’s customers could soon face “a brutal increase” in costs (More).

CULTURE AND SPORTS

After four years of renovations, the Modern Art Centre (CAM) at Gulbenkian Foundation in Lisbon reopens today with an official ceremony and an extensive program of free activities during this weekend (More).
Singer Dino d’ Santiago and the Matosinhos Jazz Orchestra have been nominated for the 25th Annual Latin Grammys Awards, which will take place in Miami on November 14 (More).

DECODER

Why did Portugal burn again?

Until last Sunday, 2024 had been one of the best years of the last decade in Portugal in terms of wild fires. Then, in three days, everything changed. This is a tragedy thas has happened before (read the previous DECODER on the 2017 fires) and, sadly, will happen again. So, why does it happen? The answer is subject to intense, often ill-tempered, debate. Give yourself a head start on the topic with this basic explanation:

The fire triangle

To explain why fires happen, specialists often use the so-called “fire triangle”: on one sides it has fuel (a fire needs something that burns); another side has oxidiser or oxygen (a fire needs oxygen to burn); and, on the third side, it has ignition (a fire needs a trigger). If one side of the triangle is cut off, there won’t be a fire. Alternatively, if all three factors are present, then a fire is quite likely.

Let’s start with the weather

The obvious culprit. Meteorologists sometimes speak of the three-thirties rule: a fire happens when temperature is above 30ºC, when the humidity is below 30% and when the wind is above 30 km per hour (19 miles per hour); to which some experts add 30 days without rain, thus making it the four-thirty rule.

Climate change?

It’s complicated. Global warming coincides with the number and severity of wildfires but that doesn’t mean there’s a causal relationship between them. It’s certainly true that we live in hotter and drier circumstances, but it’s harder to establish that there’s a direct relationship between this and the beginning of wild fires. Yet, climate change can surely affect the way fires evolve. In other words, climate change may not light the match, but it likely sets the stage for fires to spread very rapidly and become very large.

Talking about triggers

Data on wild fires in Portugal has consistently shown that human activity is the main culprit for ignitions - accounting for 90-98% of all fires. However, the jury is out on how many wild fires are accidental or intentionally ignited. This week, Portuguese police arrested 14 suspected arsonists, adding to the 77 already in prisons as PÚBLICO reported this week. Others pointed out that many fires this week started at night, which makes them unlikely to be accidents (say, as a result of barbequing in the woods or sparks launched from machines). As the fires spread through north and central Portugal, the leader of far-right Chega, André Ventura, demanded legal changes to equate arsonists with terrorists. Later, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro on Tuesday promised tough “repressive action” against such crimes, adding that “committed in the name of particular interests.” However, he didn’t specify further.

Does arsonism have economic goals?

This was the question asked on a TV debate between José Gomes Ferreira, the deputy director of SIC Notícias - who answered yes - and Henrique Pereira dos Santos, a landscape architect - who answered no (the show is available here but only in Portuguese). Gomes Ferreira argued that wild fires favour companies that sell protection equipment, provide aerial support to firefighters, transform burnt wood into pellets, want to speculate on real estate, and other economic interests. In turn, Pereira dos Santos pointed out firstly that, in recent years, the number of ignitions in Portugal fell by two-thirds - so, the problem isn’t on the number of ignitions. He also argued that the association between arsonism and night time ignitions is flawed because the officials only detect and record fires that are large enough to be detected, not the physical and chemical moment of the first ignition - that may happen during the day. He said that there is no scientific evidence to suggest that arsonists acted on behalf economic interests; instead, studies relate wild fires to landscape planning.

What about the landscape?

Eucalyptus monoculture plantations have proliferated in the areas affected by this week’s fires. The eucalyptus, which is native to Australia but is now the primary tree species in Portugal, is an attractive crop for abandoned plots because it needs little maintenance, grows rapidly and generates significant biomass and economic value. Portugal is currently the third largest producer of pulp in Europe, after Sweden and Finland. Yet, the eucalyptus also burns fast: according to specialists, a fire in a eucalyptus grove can reach 30 kilometres per hour (19 miles per hour).

So, it’s all down to the eucalyptus?

Probably not. In this regard, specialists point out that well-maintained eucalyptus plantations almost never burn. Instead, the eucalyptus may be the symptom of a deeper socioeconomic transition that made Portugal more vulnerable to wild fires: rural exodus, which accelerated after the end of the dictatorship, combined with poor territorial planning. Rural depopulation has led to overgrown vegetation covering stone barriers that used to serve as firewalls, an increase in forested areas, and a decrease on grazing livestock. On the other hand, poor planning allowed such abandoned forests to encroach on houses, villages and towns in the countryside.

Why not solve it?

Well, this is where money comes in. Despite the best efforts of Governments, the eucalyptus remains the most economically attractive crop for many communities in north and central Portugal (the dominance of cork trees may be one of the reasons why Alentejo in the south almost never burns). On the other hand, 97% of the land in Portugal is privately-owned, in a total of 11.5 million rural properties (more than the Portuguese population), 85% of which are concentrated in the north and centre. Around 30% of these properties are inheritances that have not yet been distributed and around 23% of the Portuguese countryside is made up of scrubland and uncultivated land. A significant part of this land has no known owner. Until this changes, it will be difficult to prevent fires in the countryside.

TIPS OF THE WEEK

Lisbon

Tribeca Film Festival

Tickets are now available for the inaugural Tribeca Festival Lisboa, to take place on October 17-19, featuring panels with Robert De Niro, Whoopi Goldberg, Patty Jenkins and Griffin Dunne. The Festival will showcase eight U.S. films, including top winners from Tribeca 2024 such as Nicholas Colia’s “Griffin in Summer,” Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or-winning feature “Anora,” Sundance breakout “In the Summers,” and the heart-wrenching SXSW drama “Bob Trevino Likes It.” The festival will also include a special screening of the highly-anticipated Portuguese series “Azul,” César Mourão’s feature narrative “Podia Ter Esperado Por Agosto,” among other portuguese films.

Porto

Mário Lúcio & Chico César

Two composers, poets and performers who are artistic exponents of their respective countries, two men of causes with a political past (Mario Lúcio was Minister of Culture of Cape Verde, and Chico César was Secretary of Culture of Paraíba), together in a concert celebrating their 60th birthdays, the 50th anniversary of the 25th of April and the centenary of Amílcar Cabral’s birth (African freedom fighter). Mario Lúcio and Chico César bring all the art and humanity that distinguishes them to a fraternal and moving dialogue of voice and guitar. Tickets and more information here.

Vila do Conde

Circular Festival

On its 20th edition, this performative arts festivals, which takes place until September 29, lines up 20 events, including music, theatre, dance, performances, talks, workshops, parties and exhibitions. The highlight is the national premiere of the show ‘The Dancing Public’ by Danish choreographer Mette Ingvartsen, which is set to grace the Municipal Theatre on Saturday 21 September at 9pm. Film-maker Ana Vaz will be present on numerous occasions, accompanied by Brazilian artist Isadora Soares Belletti, who will be presenting her first solo exhibition. For more information, including tickets, go here.

Vila Nova da Baronia

Spira Lab: Rammed Earth Workshops

Discover the potential of rammed earth construction, focusing on the taipa technique, with this theoretical and practical workshop by SpiraLab, taking place on October 18-20 and November 8-10. The workshops, coordinated by architect Miguel Ferreira Mendes, will provide an initial scientific and practical contact with earthen construction, covering applications, architectural details, and raw material characterization. The training is structured around two independent and non-consecutive sessions, each with a total duration of 18 hours. It includes a communal dinner at a traditional tavern with Alentejo singing and a night time visit to cultural heritage sites. Accommodation is provided in a shared house. More information here.

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