Special briefing: General Elections 2025
Portugal’s third election in as many years brought a hung parliament and a historic shift to the right. Here are five quick takeaways from election night to get you up to speed with the latest news.
1. Luís Montenegro will remain Prime Minister of Portugal
His centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) secured the top spot in the election with 32.1% of the vote. While he fell short of an outright majority necessary to survive in the longer run, Montenegro can still claim a political win: the AD not only increased its share of the vote but also expanded its presence in parliament. Crucially, the alliance won more seats than all the left-wing parties combined, giving Montenegro a solid basis to expect President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will invite him to form the next government. In other words, his gamble on a snap election to shake off the Spinumviva scandal and boost his majority in Parliament appears to have paid off. Yet, government formation talks are expected to take time. For President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to formally reappoint Montenegro as Prime Minister, multiple parties, including the Socialists, will need to offer assurances that they will not vote down his nomination in Parliament and this might be complicated by the Socialists’ own leadership issues (see below).
2. Ventura could become “the leader of the opposition”
Chega’s right-wing populists surged to 23% and are currently running neck-and-neck with the Socialist Party (PS) for second place - an astonishing shift, considering the PS held an absolute majority just over a year ago. However, four seats from the overseas constituencies have yet to be finalized, and those votes could still tip the balance. If Chega overtakes the Socialists, it would become the second-largest party in parliament and its leader André Ventura would assume the role of “leader of the opposition” - the official designation for the leader of the main opposition force in Portugal. This would position him as a real contender to the post of Prime Minister of Portugal. Ventura was quick to seize the moment, declaring on live television: “Based on the indications we have so far, even with the emigration cycle still to be counted, I believe we can say something that hasn’t happened since April 25, 1974 (the Carnation Revolution): Chega has become the second-largest party in Portugal.” He added triumphantly, “Today we can say that bipartisanship is over in Portugal.”
3. The right has a two-thirds majority in Parliament
At this moment, the three right-wing forces - the Democratic Alliance (AD), Chega, and the Liberal Initiative (IL) - together hold 156 seats, giving them a potential two-thirds majority in Portugal’s 230-seat parliament. While they have so far rejected forming a grand coalition, this supermajority grants them substantial constitutional power. Most notably, it allows them to amend the Constitution, pass constitutional laws, and appoint key institutional figures, including judges to the Constitutional Court, members of regulatory bodies, and the president of the Court of Auditors. While this level of parliamentary dominance paves the way for sweeping reforms and high-level appointments, it does not override the powers of the President, who retains authority over key actions such as dissolving parliament or appointing the Prime Minister. In short, even with a supermajority, the right must still operate within the guardrails of Portugal’s semi-presidential system.
4. Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos has resigned
Pedro Nuno Santos has accepted the PS’s defeat in the legislative elections and announced his resignation. He confirmed he will call internal party elections and will not stand again for the leadership. “I feel I’ve honoured the history of the PS. I’m very proud of the party I’ve led over this past year and a bit,” he said. “I take full responsibility as party leader, as I always have. For that reason, I will ask the National Commission to call internal elections, in which I will not be a candidate.” Reflecting on the results, Santos expressed disappointment, remarking that “the parties that caused instability were rewarded, while the party that ensured stability over the past year was penalised.” He stood by the PS’s decision to support a parliamentary inquiry into Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, insisting that the reasons behind that stance remain “untouchable.”
5. Political instability will likely continue
However satisfied he may be with the election result, the fact remains: Prime Minister Luís Montenegro still lacks a governing majority in Parliament. As before, he will need the support of either Chega or the Socialists to pass next year’s budget and survive key votes of confidence. So far, Montenegro has categorically ruled out any form of agreement with Chega, making a minority government viable only if it can count on at least tacit support from the center-left. But that path looks uncertain. Despite announcing his resignation, Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos made clear that his party has no intention of propping up Montenegro’s government. “It’s not my job to be the backbone of this government, and I don’t believe that role should fall to the PS either,” he said. According to Santos, Montenegro “is not fit to be Prime Minister, and the elections have not changed that.” Adding to the Socialists’ stance is the unresolved Spinumviva scandal. There remains a real possibility that new revelations could emerge in the coming months, or that either Chega or the PS will follow through on their push for a parliamentary inquiry, the issue that triggered these elections in the first place...
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Chega, shaped in the vein of Trump, has become the second-largest party in Portugal.
Their presence is impossible to miss – massive, high-budget “vote for me” billboards loomed over nearly every roundabout, at least here in the Algarve where we live. It begs the question: Where is all that money coming from?
I would agree, except it was you who escalated with the personal slur in this instance, and HF has already owned their behaviour. I hope you can find the humility to do the same.
I wasn’t thinking of your contribution when I moved to parenthetical. More the notion that some opinions are better held than expressed, such as pejorative terms regarding ethnicity, skin tone, etc. And we are not obligated to tolerate those opinions, when expressed. Confronting abusive behaviour will always remain an important issue in my life.