Socialists narrowly lead the AD in latest poll
However, the two main political forces are in a technical draw. Chega looses steam.
The Socialist Party (PS) has a slight advantage (33% ) over the governing Democratic Alliance (AD) (31%) , according to the most recent opinion poll by the Catholic University for RTP and Público.
However, both parties are still within the margin of error of each other, with the PS winning between 30 and 36% of the votes and the AD between 28 and 34%.
In comparison to the previous poll, in May, the PS increased 4 percentage points, while the AD increased by one percentage point.
Meanwhile, Chega continues to be the third political force (14%), but fell almost five percentage points compared to the May poll (19%).
PS and AD together have increased five points (64%), the same number of points that Chega drops. It is also worth noting that the right remains in the majority.
The Liberals (IL) also increased slightly from 5% to 7%. In contrast, ecosocialist Livre dropped from 5% to 3%.
The Left Bloc (BE) gathered 4% of voters' preferences; the Comunists (CDU) 3%; and PAN, 2%.
PM Montenegro most trusted
However, it’s not all bad news for PM LuÃs Montenegro. An Aximage opinion poll for JN, DN and TSF revealed this week that, for the first time, the Portuguese trust a PM more than they trust a President.
When asked whether they trust the head of government or the head of state more, 35% of respondents chose LuÃs Montenegro, compared to 27% who chose President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a difference of eight percentage points.
Another 25% of respondents say they trust both equally. It is among the voters of the Democratic Alliance (a coalition that brings together PSD and CDS-PP) that LuÃs Montenegro has the greatest advantage: 58% trust the prime minister more and only 18% elect Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa — a difference of 40 points.
In the distribution of trust by age groups, the prime minister wins in comparison with Marcelo at all ages, with the biggest advantage being registered among the youngest electorate. The President of the Republic still achieves a higher level of trust among Socialist Party voters and among the most disadvantaged.
Despite everything, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is recovering his popularity ratings. In this Aximage survey (carried out between the 3rd and 8th of July), 37% of respondents gave a positive assessment of the President of the Republic's performance, while 60% had the opposite opinion — which represents an improvement compared to the last opinion study from Aximage, when 60% of Portuguese people disapproved of Marcelo's performance.
Minister of Health worst member of Government
Almost all government ministers are following Montenegro's rise in positive ratings. The only one going against the cycle is the Minister of Health, involved in several controversies in recent weeks. Ana Paula Martins receives a negative evaluation from 48% of respondents, against 36% positive opinions, in the Aximage survey.
In addition to the holder of the Health portfolio, there is another minister in negative territory: Nuno Melo, who holds the Defense portfolio. The CDS-PP leader also has 41% negative opinions and 35% positive opinions.
The minister with the best performance is Paulo Rangel, holder of the Foreign Affairs portfolio. 52% give Rangel a positive evaluation, and only 24% give a negative evaluation to the vice-president of the PSD. Very close is the Minister of Education, Fernando Alexandre (with 50% positive opinions and 27% negative).