Navy Chief of Staff favoured to win next Presidential election
The Presidential elections will take place at the beginning of 2026 and there are no official candidates yet, but 21% of those surveyed in a new poll favour Admiral Gouveia e Melo.
What?
A new opinion poll by Aximage for CNN PORTUGAL revealed that Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo, the Chief of Staff of the Navy, is the favorite of the Portuguese to be the next President.
The results of the survey are as follows: Henrique Gouveia e Melo (21%), former right-wing PM Pedro Passos Coelho (14.7%), TV pundit LuÃs Marques Mendes (10.6%), Chega leader André Ventura (8.8%), former Finance Minister Mário Centeno (8.3% ), former Socialist Presidential candidate and TV pundit Ana Gomes (7.9%) and Socialist and former President of National Assembly Augusto Santos Silva (5%).
The number of blank and invalid votes totals 5.1% and undecided votes total 18.6%.
Tell me more?
The military man rose to prominence during the Covid-19 pandemic for coordinating the highly successful vaccination campaign.
Admiral Gouveia e Melo tops voters’ preferences in the Center and South regions, as well as in the Islands, faring only below 20% in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area.
In the North region, former PM Pedro Passos Coelho tops voters’ preferences with 21.1%, while Gouveia e Melo gathers 20.5% of the responses.
André Ventura is the second favorite both in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area with 12.8% and in the Porto Metropolitan Area (11.2%), ahead of LuÃs Marques Mendes, but behind Passos Coelho and Gouveia e Melo.
Party identification
In the terms of party identification, his support comes mostly from the Liberal Initiative’s voters, but he is also preferred by Socialists, ahead of Mário Centeno and Augusto Santos Silva.
Among center-right voters, Gouveia e Melo is behind Passos Coelho, but barely: the military man has 23.3% of intentions and the former prime minister, 24.7%.
Finally, the Admiral dominates across the board in the stratification by sex and age: he leads in male and female, but also in the four age groups heard (18-34/35-49/50-64/65+).
In a possible second round, Admiral Gouveia e Melo’s chances of becoming the next President increase: in a direct comparison with his most direct opponents, the military man would win the presidential elections by a large margin: this is the case with Passos Coelho, with just 28%, compared to 51%. % of the admiral, but also with Centeno 38% against 29%) and Marques Mendes (47% against 28%).
Aximage’s research for CNN had a sample of 818 interviews, carried out between September 6-19. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4%.