Friday Briefing: Political parties are in deep trouble
Good morning and welcome to PORTUGAL DECODED. Ever wondered why a Navy officer with no political experience is leading the polls for the next presidential election? Recent events hold the answer.
TALK OF THE TOWN
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POLITICS
Luís Marques Mendes, a prominent political commentator and former leader of the centre-right PSD, entered the Presidential race last night. Earlier, the Liberals announced Mariana Leitão as their candidate to the January 2026 elections (More).
Asked about Trump’s plan for Gaza in Parliament, PM Montenegro firmly stated his opposition to “any intervention, purpose, or intention of ethnic cleansing” but refused to condemn the US President’s plan (More).
SOCIETY
After nearly five months on the run, the last two fugitives from Portugal’s Vale de Judeus prison, Rodolfo José Lohrmann and Mark Cameron Roscaleer, were recaptured on Thursday in Alicante, Spain (More).
At least four women were murdered by men in January in the context of domestic violence prompting renewed calls for stronger protective measures and awareness campaigns to combat gender-based violence in Portugal (More).
ECONOMICS
The Government has introduced a financial incentive for AIMA employees to speed up regularization processes, while saying that the number of immigrants in Portugal will be revised upwards “very significantly” in the coming weeks (More).
Portugal’s public debt ratio fell to 95.3% of GDP by the end of 2024, while its GDP grew 2.7% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, above the Government’s expectations (More).
CULTURE AND SPORTS
Maria Teresa Horta, a leading poet, journalist, and feminist icon, who was recently included in a BBC list of the 100 most influential and inspiring women worldwide, passed away this week in Lisbon (More).
Cristiano Ronaldo celebrated his 40th birthday and showed no sign of stopping any time soon. In an interview this week, he also didn’t hold back: “I’m the best player in football history” (More).
DECODER
Why are Portuguese political parties in trouble?
It began with a far-right Chega MP expelled for allegedly stealing suitcases from airport carousels—a scandal dubbed “Malagate.” Soon after, it emerged that the far-left Bloco de Esquerda (BE) had dismissed four new mothers, including breastfeeding employees, after poor election results. While legal, the dismissals—revealed on the same day as the party was hosting a labor rights event—sparked accusations of hypocrisy. BE leadership initially lashed out, filing a complaint with media regulators before backtracking and admitting “errors.” Further damaging its credibility, a former BE advisor promoting a referendum against short-term rentals was found to own two Airbnbs in Alfama.
Did the scandals only affect extreme parties?
No. On Tuesday, prosecutors charged 60 individuals—mainly from the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Socialist Party (PS)—in the “Tutti Frutti” case, involving corruption, malfeasance, money laundering, and influence peddling largely in the Lisbon area. Among them were PSD MPs Luís Newton and Carlos Eduardo Reis, and Lisbon councillor Ângelo Pereira. However, former ministers Fernando Medina and Duarte Cordeiro, from the PS, were not indicted. Following the charges, PS councillor Inês Drummond resigned, while Newton and Pereira suspended their mandates—though Newton retained his role as Estrela parish council president.
Was that all?
Far from it. On Wednesday, Chega’s national councillor Nuno Pardal Ribeiro was indicted for child prostitution, accused of paying 20 euros via MB Way to a 15-year-old boy for sexual acts. He admitted to the encounter - arranjed through the Grindr app - but claimed he believed the minor was an adult: “It was something that happened, a moment. I don’t usually have these practices.” Party leader André Ventura swiftly called for his removal, reaffirming Chega’s stance on chemical castration for child abusers: “Anyone who abuses minors should be castrated.” On the same day, another Chega scandal surfaced: an Azores MP was caught driving with a 2.25 g/l blood alcohol level. More could follow.
What are the likely political consequences of these scandals?
These scandals could further erode public trust in traditional parties, with local and presidential elections looming. PSD figures implicated in the “Tutti Frutti” case hold key positions in Lisbon (three of them are the parish council presidents of Estrela, Areeiro, and Santo António), threatening the reelection chances of Mayor Carlos Moedas. Meanwhile, these scandals may reinforce a trend observed in recent local elections: the rise of independents. The number of independent councillors and Mayors increased from 31 in 2001 to 134 in 2021, including in major municipalities such as Porto, Oeiras, and Figueira da Foz, as well as smaller towns like Batalha, Guarda, and Mealhada. While the electoral race in Lisbon and Porto is likely to be dominated by major parties, independents could gain traction in the parishes.
What about the Presidential elections?
The latest ICS/ISCTE poll - the polls with the most accurate track record in past elections - shows that Henrique Gouveia e Melo, a retired Portuguese Navy officer with no political background and no party affiliation, leads the polls (se above). It’s worth pointing out that respondents also identified Gouveia e Melo as the most moderate among all potential Presidential candidates. This suggests that, while voters are looking outside party structures, they still favor moderation over radical change. Could this signal a shift toward independent but pragmatic leadership in Portuguese politics?
TIPS OF THE WEEK
Lisbon
Images of Fado in Portuguese Art
This exhibition on display at the Fado Museum until March 23, proposes an integrated and multidisciplinary reading of the representations of Fado in Portuguese Art from the 19th-21st centuries, bringing together works by José Malhoa, Columbano Bordalo Pinheiro, Leonel Marques Pereira, Rafael Bordalo Pinheiro, Almada Negreiros, Amadeo de Souza-Cardoso, Eduardo Viana, Domingos Alvarez, Francis Smith, Eduardo Moura, Carlos Reis, Alfredo Roque Gameiro, Raquel Roque Gameiro, Eduardo Malta, Bernardo Marques, Stuart Carvalhais, João Abel Manta, Cândido da Costa Pinto, Leonel Moura, Paula Rego, João Vieira and Júlio Pomar. Throughout its history, Fado has always known how to assume itself as a field of creativity, openly dialoguing with other arts and other performing genres, popular or erudite. Tuesday to Sunday, 10 am to 6 pm (last admission: 5:30 pm).
Porto
Nubya Garcia
It is at Casa da Música, on Sunday February 9, at 9pm, that British singer and saxophonist Nubya Garcia, a key figure in the modern London jazz scene, begins her new European tour, aiming to promote the album Odyssey, released last September to immediate acclaim. As the title suggests, it is a musical journey of epic scope, intertwining jazz, classical music, R&B, and dub, with Nubya taking on the string arrangements for the first time. She is joined by Lyle Barton (keyboards), Daniel Casimir (double bass), and Sam Jones (drums) for this unmissable concert. Tickets €25.
Guimarães
GUIdance
The 14th edition of GUIdance, which started on Thursday and will run until February 15, focuses especially on flamenco and the great names of its avant-garde. The work of Rocío Molina, one of the leading names in Spanish dance today, will be one of the highlights of the festival. The festival will close with Israel Galván’s La Consagración de la Primavera, a pioneer in the reinvention of flamenco, subverting its codes. Also noteworthy is the irreverent and amusing work by Italian choreographer Silvia Gribaudi, Graces (Saturday 8), which skirts stereotypes, inspired by Antonio Canova's sculpture The Three Graces, which is based on the three figures from Greek mythology, Aglaia, Euphrosyne and Thalia. Diversity is also evident in the creators’ geographical roots (Portugal, Spain, Iran, France, Tunisia and Belgium).
Monção
Good old “cozido à Portuguesa”
The initiative is called “Campo em Festa” and, this weekend, it will once again offer lovers of traditional gastronomy a real Portuguese stew with ‘genuine country flavours’, all produced locally and organically. To this end, since before last summer the people of the villages of Anhões and Luzio, located in the Gadanha valley, around 15 kilometres from the seat of the municipality of Monção, began “sowing several fields of kale and potatoes (one tonne)” and raising “11 pigs, 220 chickens and three cows of the Barrosã breed, in a free environment, with natural food”. For ‘the preparation of the dish, 30 hams and 2,000 sausages (meat, blood and salpicão) are already being “lined up”. Each meal costs €20 per person and includes a starter with village flavours (bread with chorizo) and Portuguese stew on a clay platter that can be taken home as a souvenir. Drinks are not included and can be purchased on site
Aveiro
Siza Vieira in International Humour
More than 40 caricatures will be on display in this exhibition at the former Aveiro Capitania from Friday 7 February until March 30. The cartoons were drawn by artists from different countries, such as Germany, Iran, Brazil and Portugal, among others, and the exhibition is the result of a selection made by the international jury from hundreds of entries received at the National Press Museum as part of the PortoCartoon international festival. The exhibition presents the best works received, namely the first prize, awarded to Ivan Prado, a Peruvian author living in Germany. The exhibition also features dozens of publications, newspapers and magazines, with interviews and news highlights about Siza Vieira's work. Tuesday to Sunday, 10h00 - 12h30 | 13h30 - 18h00, free entrance.
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Politics is for politicians and they will always play games: the Presidency must not just seen to be, but actually be, above politics. Service to the country through military service is a very good background for service to the country as President.