Friday Briefing: PM to face no-confidence vote today
Good morning and welcome to PORTUGAL DECODED. All of a sudden, the PM is caught in a conflict of interest scandal. What triggered it, why today’s vote will fail and why it could spiral out of control?
TALK OF THE TOWN
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POLITICS
Henrique Gouveia e Melo, the former Navy Admiral and clear frontrunner for the 2026 Presidential elections, has clarified his political stance, positioning himself “between socialism and social democracy” (More).
Insults like “freak,” “junkie,” and “you look like a dead person” were allegedly hurled at a visually impaired MP by the far-right Chega bench during a debate in Parliament, fueling calls for sanctions against dishonorable conduct (More).
SOCIETY
A 4.8-magnitude quake struck the Lisbon area on Monday, causing no injuries or damage. The IPMA website crashed for 30 minutes due to high traffic, highlighting concerns about Portugal’s preparedness for stronger earthquakes (More).
AIMA will soon notify 76,000 migrants of their denied regularization requests. According to the AIMA’s President, the rejections primarily affect applicants who failed to respond to initial notifications requesting a meeting (More).
ECONOMICS
The FT named Porto the best European medium-sized city of the future in investment attraction strategy. Meanwhile, Braga secured the second position among small cities on the continent (More).
Chega forced the delay of a vote on the controversial amendments to the Land Law, alleging that it wants more time to analyse the various changes proposed by different parties controversial amendments to the Land Law (More).
CULTURE AND SPORTS
A Portuguese artist’s cartoon, showing a man blocking a line of Tesla Cybertrucks in a nod to Tiananmen Square’s “Tank Man,” has gone viral as a symbol of American defiance (More).
FC Porto mourned the death of Jorge Nuno Pinto da Costa, the club’s President between 1982 and 2024, leading it to unprecedented success, lifting a total of 69 national and international football trophies during that period (More).
DECODER
What is the source of the controversy?
On Saturday, Correio da Manhã reported that Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s wife and two sons own a real estate company, Spinumviva, which he co-founded and managed. Between January 2021 and December 2023, the company generated €718,000 in revenue and €342,000 in profits, with a share capital of just €6,000. The mere existence of this undisclosed real estate company is a violation of the government’s own code of conduct, but the controversy deepened over concerns that Montenegro’s family could financially benefit from the recent revision of the Land Law. On Sunday, Chega leader André Ventura gave the PM a 24-hour ultimatum to clarify what he called an “absolute suspicion of corruption.” When Montenegro failed to respond within the given timeframe, Chega submitted a no-confidence motion against the Government. In Portugal, a no-confidence motion - often referred to as a “motion of censure” in direct translation - functions similarly to a confidence vote, since, under Portuguese constitutional rules, if such a motion is approved, it results in the resignation of the Government.
How did PM Montenegro react?
On Saturday, Montenegro dismissed the allegations as “absurd and unjustified.” With pressure mounting, he responded in writing to Correio da Manhã on Tuesday, insisting that he no longer has any involvement in Spinumviva. He stated that he resigned as the company’s manager on June 30, 2022—just over a month after being elected leader of the PSD—and sold his shares to his wife and youngest son. He also emphasized that, despite the company’s broad legal scope, its only actual business activity had been consulting on personal data protection. However, critics were unsatisfied. Upon landing in Brasília on Wednesday, Montenegro announced via social media that he would only address “all necessary considerations regarding the current internal political situation” during the parliamentary debate on the no-confidence motion, scheduled for today at 3 p.m.
Why were Montenegro’s responses unconvincing?
Several key questions remain unanswered. The Prime Minister has not disclosed who Spinumviva’s clients were, apart from mentioning Cofina (the media group that owns Correio da Manhã). He also failed to clarify where the clients came from (since the company has no website), the exact services the company provided, who performed them, or what role he played in securing business deals. Furthermore, there is little transparency regarding the company’s employees or its revenue and profits in 2024, the year Montenegro took office as PM. On Wednesday, Correio da Manhã reignited the controversy, pointing out that under Article 1714(2) of the Portuguese Civil Code, the transfer of shares between spouses is prohibited unless they are legally separated in terms of persons and property—which is not the case here, as Montenegro and his wife are married under a shared property regime. Several legal experts pointed out that, as a result, Montenegro remains the de facto main shareholder of Spinumviva.
Why is the no-confidence vote expected to fail?
Socialist Party leader Pedro Nuno Santos dismissed Chega’s motion as a distraction from the party’s internal problems, confirming that the PS will vote against it. Without the Socialists’ support—who hold 78 seats and refuse to “play into Chega’s agenda” - the motion is guaranteed to fail. However, Santos pointed out that the controversy surrounding Spinumviva is “very similar” to the case of Secretary of State Hernâni Dias, who was forced to resign under similar circumstances. He urged Montenegro to clarify the issue “as soon as possible” and criticized his failure to address it promptly, warning that the longer he waits, the more suspicions grow. He also rejected claims that demanding explanations from the Prime Minister was a populist move. In a further twist, late on Thursday, Chega leader André Ventura issued another ultimatum to the PM, stating that if Montenegro provides comprehensive documentation regarding his family’s real estate company by 3 PM on Friday - and if the details sufficiently clarify the matter - the no-confidence motion would be withdrawn. This leaves a small chance that the scheduled parliamentary debate on the motion could be avoided altogether.
What are the political implications of this case?
The controversy may escalate further. Earlier in the week, Montenegro had an opportunity to quell the growing scrutiny by simply dissolving or suspending the company. However, his delayed and evasive response has only deepened suspicions and intensified the political fallout. Chega leader André Ventura has already signaled that if Montenegro’s explanations during today’s parliamentary debate are deemed insufficient, his party will formally request investigations by both the Transparency Authority and the Public Prosecutor’s Office. Such a move could trigger an official inquiry - a scenario that proved politically fatal for former Prime Minister António Costa, who resigned under similar circumstances. At the time, Costa declared, “The duties of a Prime Minister are incompatible with any suspicion of my integrity.” While Montenegro may take a different stance, the ultimate decision rests with President Marcelo, who holds the authority to call early elections until September 2025. So far, the President has remained tight-lipped about the controversy, stating that he will only address the matter after today’s parliamentary debate.
TIPS OF THE WEEK
Lisbon
On February 24, Lisbon’s São Jorge Cinema, in central Avenida da Liberdade, celebrates its 75th anniversary with a special and free program running until March 2. The opening event is a cine-concert featuring The Gold Rush by Charlie Chaplin, accompanied by the Lisbon Film Orchestra. The program includes historically significant films, such as censored works and Last Tango in Paris, which marked a new era in Portuguese cinema. Additional activities include family-friendly workshops, a behind-the-scenes tour (on March 1), and a special screening in the Manoel de Oliveira Room. All film screenings are free, subject to theater capacity. Tickets available on the day at the Cinema São Jorge box office, open daily from 1PM to 8 PM. More information here.
Porto
Essência do Vinho’25
The largest wine fair in Portugal returns to the Palácio da Bolsa in Porto, on 20-23 February. Held since 2004, this event brings together producers from all of Portugal’s wine regions, promoting a programme of 40+ themed masterclasses and experiences, and bringing an international delegation of on & off trade professionals to Porto. At this popular exhibition, sit in on wine talks and workshops, chat with over 100 wine experts, understand wine pairings, and of course, taste from the thousands of wine labels represented. The venue itself is worth the visit: built in the 19th century by the city’s Commercial Association and located in the heart of the city's historic centre, the Palácio da Bolsa was listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1996. More information, including tickets, here.
Cascais
Capítulo Perfeito 2025
The wait is over: the annual one-day tube-riding competition returns for its 11th edition this Saturday, February 22, at Praia de Carcavelos. With forecasted waves exceeding 2 meters and light to moderate offshore winds, conditions are set for heavy, flawless barrels. As always, Capítulo Perfeito (Perfect Chapter) brings together a dynamic mix of freesurfers and former Championship Tour pros. This year’s international invitees include Rob Machado, Clay Marzo, Balaram Stack, Bruno Santos, Aritz Aranburu, Craig Anderson, Noah Beschen, and Noa Deane. Representing Portugal are Nic von Rupp, Pedro Boonman, João Maria Mendonça, and Miguel Blanco. The first call is set for 7 AM, kicking off a full day of action, including the debut of the Special Women’s Heat and a tribute to Portuguese surf legend Tiago “Saca” Pires. The event will be live-streamed on the competition’s official website.
Podence
Carnival 2025
Podence, a town of around 200 people in Bragança district, hosts one of the most authentic and vibrant traditions in Portugal, from March 1 to 4, 2025. The iconic Caretos of Podence, recognized as Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity by UNESCO, will once again fill the streets with their devilish masks, colorful costumes, and rattles, all part of one of the country’s most ancient rituals. If you’re looking for a unique experience that combines culture, tradition, and stunning landscapes, this is the perfect destination. Among the highlights of the program are the official opening of the event (Saturday, March 1), the grand Caretos parade, and a popular party with live concerts (Sunday, March 2), and the closing of the Entrudo (‘Carnival’) and the burning of the “Devil,” symbolically ending winter and welcoming the arrival of spring (Tuesday, March 4).
Algarve
51st Volta ao Algarve Cycling Tour 2025
Since Wednesday, 175 riders from 25 teams have been racing through the roads of the Algarve, forming a star-studded peloton for five days of intense competition. Covering nearly 750 kilometers from Portimão to Alto do Malhão (Loulé), the Volta ao Algarve is one of Europe’s most prestigious early-season stage races. It serves as a key testing ground for both Classics specialists and stage racers, who sharpen their form on the demanding terrain of southern Portugal. Last year, Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) claimed his third overall victory, equaling the race's record. Now in its 51st edition, the Volta ao Algarve introduces a revamped route, promising thrilling battles until the final pedal strokes. While the race once again concludes atop Malhão in Loulé, this year marks the first-ever summit finish in a time trial. Additionally, a brand-new stage has been introduced with a finish in Faro, while the climb to Fóia, Monchique, has been made even more challenging than in previous years.
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