Friday Briefing: It's a political crisis
Good morning and welcome to PORTUGAL DECODED. Yes, it's true: Portugal has plunged into yet another political crisis, with general elections likely in May. How did we get here and what's next?
TALK OF THE TOWN
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POLITICS
President Marcelo criticized Donald Trump for his radical departure from traditional U.S. foreign policy, accusing him of aligning more closely with Russian interests at the expense of European unity (More).
The Health Minister faced fresh calls to resign after a preliminary report revealed her Ministry failed to forward strike pre-notices to INEM in time, a lapse some link to eleven deaths (More).
SOCIETY
Over 70% of Lisbon’s tenants face financial strain, a new study revealed. Rising rents and poor living conditions worsen the crisis, deepening social inequalities, especially among low-income, female, and foreign residents (More).
The environmental group Grupo Amigos das Árvores de Sintra (GAAS) has filed a formal complaint with the Attorney General’s Office (PGR) over the “brutal pruning” of a 600-year-old chestnut tree, classified since 1945 (More).
ECONOMICS
Over 200 hotels are currently in the pipeline for the coming years in Lisbon and Porto, according to the Lisbon Tourism Association and the Porto City Council (More).
In a significant boost for Portugal’s economic standing, S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Portugal’s sovereign credit rating to “A” from “A-” with a positive outlook (More).
CULTURE AND SPORTS
Fourteen Portuguese galleries are present at ARCOmadrid 2025, one of the world’s leading art fairs, which also saw the launch of Armando Martins Museum of Contemporary Art (MACAM), set to open on March 22 in Lisbon (More).
Also in Madrid, artist Joana Vasconcelos, renowned for her monumental sculptures and installations, has inaugurated “Flamboyant,” an exhibition blending her art with masterpieces by great figures like Velázquez, Goya, and Titian (More).
DECODER
Tell me what happened in a nutshell.
On Wednesday, during a failed no-confidence debate in Parliament over his family’s business (for a detailed explanation, see our Special Briefing), Prime Minister Luís Montenegro called a confidence vote in the center-right Government. The vote is set for next Tuesday. If lawmakers reject it, the Government will collapse and transition into a caretaker role while President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa decides whether to dissolve Parliament and call new elections - Portugal’s third in three years. Speaking late Wednesday, the President said he expects a snap election to be held on May 11 or 18. But there are many factors that could still delay this date.
Why is the government calling a confidence vote now?
The official argument is that “the country needs political clarification, and given these circumstances, this is the moment to achieve it.” But this reasoning sits uneasily with the fact that the Government just survived two no-confidence votes. There are three alternative - and not necessarily conflicting - explanations. The first is to dodge scrutiny. On Monday, the Socialist Party called for a parliamentary commission of inquiry, which has the same investigative powers as judicial authorities. This could expose details the PM has so far avoided revealing. The second is to avoid months of relentless attacks from the opposition in the inquiry commission, which would keep the government on the defensive and politically weakened with local and presidential elections approaching. The third is that the Government may simply believe it stands a better chance at the polls now rather than in a few months.
How long until we have a new Government?
If the motion of confidence is rejected next week, the Government is expected to immediately submit its resignation to President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. He would then meet with parliamentary parties and convene the Council of State. If he decides to dissolve Parliament afterwards, he must schedule new elections within 55 to 60 days of that decision. For instance, if President Marcelo dissolves Parliament on March 18 (an early scenario), elections would take place on May 11. From election day to the inauguration of a new Government, the process typically takes between three and five weeks. In the last legislative elections, the new Government, took office 23 days later. Based on this timeline, Portugal could have a new Government between the first and the third week of June 2025.
How worried should you be about this?
Here’s a Portuguese word that political pundits here love: miniciclo (as in “mini political cycle”). It refers to a government that doesn’t last the full four-year legislative term mandated by the Constitution. Portugal has been stuck in miniciclos since 2019. In 2022, António Costa’s second government collapsed after Parliament rejected the State Budget. In 2024, his third government fell amid the Operation Influencer scandal. And yet, during this period, Portugal mounted one of the most successful national responses to COVID-19, became one of the EU’s fastest-growing economies, and finally decided on the location for Lisbon’s new airport. True, major challenges remain: persistent poverty, a housing crisis, and chaotic emergency services, among others. But this political turbulence is unlikely to have a severe impact on your daily life (a note on far-right Chega is warranted here: while its influence is growing, victory in these elections remains a long shot). So, while this represents yet another delay in implementing much-needed reforms, it remains, sadly for Portugal, a mere distraction from the far greater challenges the world is currently facing…
TIPS OF THE WEEK
Lisbon
Portuguese Guitar Festival
The Portuguese Guitar Festival’s first edition will take place on March 7-8 in Lisbon. Dedicated to the genius musician Carlos Paredes, who would celebrate his 100th anniversary this year, the festival will open with the Orquestra Sinfonietta de Lisboa, performing ‘Mata de Lobos’, an original composition. On the same day, Henrique Fraga will present two recitals at the Variedades Theatre, followed by Armindo Fernandes. On 8 March, José Manuel Neto, known for accompanying artists such as Camané and Maria Amélia Proença, will perform at the Cinema São Jorge, while Pedro Caldeira Cabral will perform at the Capitólio. Luísa Amaro, the oldest active professional guitarist, and a former companion of Carlos Paredes, will offer two recitals at the Capitólio. Besides the concerts, there will be talks and documentary films that will take place in three iconic venues in central Lisbon. More information here.
Porto
Haribo Kimchi
In Haribo Kimchi, which will be performed on March 13-14 at the Teatro do Campo Alegre, we find ourselves in a pojangmacha, one of the typical late-night snack bars found on the streets of South Korea. There, we meet three characters - a snail, a gummy bear, and an eel- who take us on a culinary journey, exploring food as shelter for those dislocated from their culture. In a series of intimate, absurdist anecdotes, they recount the evolution of kimchi culture, the bitter pain of unadulterated racism, the shame of trying to blend in and the deep umami taste of home. In a hybrid style that combines music, cutting-edge video, and robotic performers, South Korean theatre maker and composer Jaha Koo reflects on cultural assimilation with all its conflicts and paradoxes .Spoken in Korean and English with subtitles in Portuguese and English. 7€. More information here.
Ponte de Lima
WalkFest 2025
If you haven’t yet explored this beautiful area or aren’t in the habit of exercising, here’s your chance: the second edition of Walkfest is coming up, a walking festival where you can learn more about local traditions. This year’s Walkfest features four walking festivals across four mountain areas in the municipality: Vale do Trovela, Aldeias da Mesa dos 4 Abades, Vale do Neiva, and Vale do Estorãos. The walks will take place on the following dates: March 22nd and 23rd in Vale do Trovela, May 3rd and 4th in Aldeias da Mesa dos 4 Abades, June 14th and 15th in Vale do Neiva, and October 25th and 26th in Vale do Estorãos. The event is free of charge, but prior registration is required. For more information, please contact us via email at: turismo@cm-pontedelima.pt.
Óbidos
International Chocolate Fair
The Óbidos International Chocolate Festival will once again transform Óbidos into the world’s chocolate capital from March 21 to April 6. Under the theme “Science”, this year’s edition of the festival invites participants to discover how great scientific inventions and their protagonists have influenced the way we relate to the world. From the complexity of transforming cocoa into delicious creations to the most advanced confectionery techniques, the art of making chocolate is pure alchemy, filled with scientific discoveries and sprinkled with human genius. There are tastings of chocolates from different parts of the world, and professional chefs showing off what they can do with cocoa. Chocoholics may also join workshops and courses, and participate in contests. More information here.
Several cities
International Women’s Day
On March 8, the International Women’s Day, feminist movements are taking to the streets in 12 cities across Portugal to advocate for gender freedom and equality. In a joint statement titled “For the Liberation of All Women,” the participating organizations emphasize the fight for “freedom over our bodies,” ensuring access to voluntary termination of pregnancy and sexual and reproductive rights. Here are the times and meeting points for the demonstrations: In Aveiro, the gathering will be at 3:00 PM at the Aveiro Station; in Castelo Branco, at 3:00 PM at the Centro Artístico Albicastrense; in Coimbra, at 3:00 PM at Praça 8 de Maio; in Évora, at 3:00 PM at Jardim das Canas; in Faro, at 3:00 PM at Liceu João de Deus; in Faial, at 3:00 PM at Parque da Alagoa; in Guimarães, at 3:00 PM at Alameda de São Dâmaso; in Lisbon, at 3:00 PM at Marquês de Pombal; in Barcelos, at 3:30 PM at Senhor da Cruz; in Braga, at 3:30 PM at Avenida Central; in Porto, at 4:00 PM at Praça dos Poveiros; and in Viseu, at 5:30 PM at Mercado 2 de Maio. More information here.
If you enjoy reading PORTUGAL DECODED, please consider donating to keep it free and independent – your generosity means everything!
awesome graphic explaining the current political situation in Portugal...nicely done!
Also this weekend- a series of free concerts at the Gulbenkian.