Admiral Gouveia e Melo Leads Polls for 2026's Presidential Elections
According to the media, he has informed the Admiralty Council and the Government that he doesn't wish to stay on as Chief of the Navy Staff. He's expected to present his bid in March 2025.
What?
Henrique Gouveia e Melo, the current Chief of the Portuguese Navy Staff, has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the race for the January 2026 presidential elections, according to a poll conducted by Intercampus for Negócios, Correio da Manhã, and CMTV.
With 23% of voter intentions, the admiral holds a commanding lead over his competitors, signaling a strong potential candidacy for the presidency.
Trailing Gouveia e Melo by nearly 10 percentage points is former Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho (from the centre-right Social Democrats, PSD), with 13.9% of voter intentions.
Luís Marques Mendes, a former leader of the Social Democrats (PSD) and political commentator, ranks third with 9.8%, followed by André Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega at 6.6%.
Other candidates in the mix include figures from the left, such as former presidential contender Ana Gomes (5.1%) and former Socialist Party leader António José Seguro (4.7%), both hinting at possible campaigns.
On the far left, Catarina Martins of the Left Bloc garnered 4%, while Rui Tavares of Livre secured 2.4%.
Other conclusions
Intercampus also tested second-round scenarios, analyzing how Gouveia e Melo would fare against different opponents.
In all simulated cases, the Admiral won comfortably, whether facing Marques Mendes or left-wing candidates like Mário Centeno or Ana Gomes.
Even heavyweight figures such as former PSD Prime Minister Durão Barroso (who was President of the European Commission between 2004-2014) or Santana Lopes struggle to compete with Gouveia e Melo, who maintains “significant” advantages in all matchups.
The poll highlights Gouveia e Melo’s unique ability to attract support from diverse political groups, with backing from 23% of right-wing voters and up to 30% of Socialist supporters. This broad appeal positions him as a unifying figure in a deeply polarized political landscape.
However, the poll also highlights a significant proportion of undecided voters, accounting for 15.3% of respondents.
When asked if they would vote for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa for a hypothetical third term (which is legally impossible), 63% of respondents said they would not, while only 23.1% indicated they would.
According to the technical details, the study is based on interviews with a sample of 605 individuals, distributed to simulate the Portuguese population. The interviews were conducted between November 21 and 27, with a margin of error of +/- 4% and a confidence interval of 95%.
Preparing Presidential run
On November 20, the media went into a frenzy after images surfaced of an unofficial meeting between Defense Minister Nuno Melo (who is also the leader of the Christian Democrats, CDS) and Admiral Gouveia e Melo at Cockpit bar, located on the quiet and discreet Avenida Sacadura Cabral in Lisbon.
The meeting, which was off the official radar, appeared to have no formal or protocol-related purpose. The meeting at the nocturnal gathering spot, held in a private area on the first floor, featured other notable details: Gouveia e Melo arrived discreetly by taxi, dressed in civilian attire, which is highly unusual of him.
This led to speculation that the encounter meeting was leaked and that he’s seeking to portray himself as a civilian and not as a military man.
Days later, Portuguese media reported that Henrique Gouveia e Melo had informed the Admiralty Council and the Government of his decision not to continue as Chief of the Navy General Staff, with his term set to conclude in December.
According to the news agency Lusa, this decision reinforces speculation that the admiral is gearing up for a presidential bid. Sources close to the matter, cited by SIC, suggest that a formal announcement of his candidacy is expected in March 2025.
Other Key Figures and Scenarios
Meanwhile, former PM Pedro Passos Coelho, who came second in the poll, reiterated this week his intent to stay out of politics.
However, some in the media questioned whether this means for the moment or in the long-term - after all, it’s more than a year before the Presidential election.